2.
Historical Overview
Attempts at organised regional co-operation between South-East Asian countries dates
back to August 1967 when the ASEAN was established with original members
Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand.
3
As ASEAN’s initial concerns were issues of political security it was not until the
1970’s that they tried to promote greater intra-regional trade and co-ordinate
industrialisation policies (based on proposals made by the United Nations sponsored
studies which called for regional import substitution, Park 1999).
4
In 1977 a PTA
was established specifically to encourage greater intra-regional trade. The consensus
from existing studies however, suggests that this initiative was disappointing (see e.g.
Ariff 1994 and Garnaut and Drysdale 1994). Tan (1992) attributed this
disappointment to several elements including the limited coverage of the PTA, an
intra-regional trade structure that was competitive rather than complementary, and the
diminishing urgency of pursuing the task because of the continued growth and
development of the region.
What transformed the half- hearted attitude to co-operation were the changes in the
global competitive environment during the late 1980’s and 1990’s. As indicated by
3
Expansions to the membership of ASEAN were Brunei in 1984, Vietnam in 1995,
Myanmar and Laos in 1997 and Cambodia in 1999 and were attempts to include the
perceived “natural” trading partners of existing members. A number of other regional
initiatives involving countries from this part of the world exist including the South Asian
Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), the SAARC PTA (SAPTA), Austrialia and
New Zealand’s Closer Economic Relations Agreement (CER) and the South Pacific
Regional Trade and Economic Cooperation Agreement (SPARTECA). See the Asian
Development Outlook 2002 for an overview.
4
Within the institutional framework of ASEAN, heads of states meet annually to ensure
strong regional communication and cooperation at both the technical and political level.
Anwar (1994) and Pomfret (1996) both suggest ASEAN lessened military tension and
contributed to political stability in the area.
8
Menon (1996) and others, the formation of NAFTA and the EU raised questions about
the access of ASEAN exports to the markets of North America and Europe.
Furthermore, the competition to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) was
intensifying and in recent years includes the emergence of China as a global economic
power and location for Western FDI.
5
In response, the founder ASEAN countries agreed to establish an ASEAN free trade
area by the year 2008. This target has been continuously mo ved forward and AFTA
was officially established among the original six countries at the beginning of 2002
(ASEAN Secretariat 2002).
6
Although AFTA involves several measures to enhance
regional trade such as the elimination of non-tariff barriers, the main mechanism for
achieving AFTA has been the Common Effective Preferential Tariff (CEPT). As
Pangestu et al. (1992) indicate, the approach of the CEPT is essentially reciprocal and
sectoral, which makes it more encompassing and less cumbersome than the
product-by-product approach of PTAs (Athukorala and Menon, 1997). This regime
was applied to all products from ASEAN member countries defined as those that had
at least 40% ASEAN content (ASEAN Secretariat, 1995).
7
5
ASEAN secretary general Rodolfo Sererino has recently commented that the Southeast
Asian region should “integrate the regional economy to a closer degree to the integration
of the Chinese market”. The first round of high-level talks aimed at establishing a FTA
between ASEAN and China started in May 2002. When implemented the worlds largest
FTA will generate estimated trade worth $1.2 trillion.
6
Under an amended plan in 1995, the reduction of existing tariff rates to 20% was to be
effective within a time frame of five to eight years from 1st January 1993 and are to be cut
further to 0-5% by 2003. In 1998 the ASEAN governments agreed that the original six
countries would aim to reduce tariffs to under 5% by 2002. Around 95% of intra-ASEAN
trade tariffs representing 90% of intra-ASEAN trade is now in the 0-5% tariff range with
the average tariff now 3.2%.
7
Appendix A provides details and indicates how this schedule is flexibly managed
depending on the preferences of different countries over a range of sectors.
9
These characteristics of AFTA and the earlier less effective experience of regional
integration might lead one to question the feasibility of a substantial expansion of
regional trade. It must also be remembered that ASEAN countries have achieved
significant economic growth and development based on independent outward- looking
policies. OECD (1993) argues, therefore, that AFTA might not be a serious regional
economic initiative but at best a hedge against other regional integration initiatives or
a temporary failure of multilateral negotiations under the GATT-WTO regime. It
may be conjectured however, that the shock and upheaval caused by the Asian crisis
provided ASEAN countries with renewed enthusiasm for maintaining and
strengthening regional links and to increase intra-regional trade to counter economic
uncertainty in the region and the rise of regional blocs elsewhere.
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