THE 3
rd
INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC CONFERENCES OF STUDENTS AND YOUNG RESEARCHERS
dedicated to the 99
th
anniversary of the National Leader of Azerbaijan Heydar Aliyev
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in calculations. The methods used in oil and gas resources evaluation can
be divided into three main categories: (1) traditional forecasting methods; (2)
statistical methods; (3) estimation based on basin modeling (Chart).
Traditional methods of hydrocarbon resources
forecast embrace a wide
range of methods. Method of geological analogies, volumetric-balance
method,
volumetric-genetic method, volumetric-statistical forecasting
methods are major representatives of them [1].
The approach proposed by American specialists (1960) is based on the
Monte Carlo and probability methods. Forecasting of Southern Louisiana's
gas resources was one of the first studies in this area.
Their approach
consisted of three components: 1) forecasting the future growth of reserves
in existing fields; 2) expected efficiency of prospecting operations in
sedimentary complexes partially (or incompletely)
covered by drilling; 3)
geological analysis of undrilled sedimentary complexes [2].
The first two techniques were relevant to areas where deposits had
already been discovered and had a long exploration history.
The USA Geological Survey was among the organizations that
pioneered using basin modeling tools to assess hydrocarbon resources.
Via modelling a number of processes are simulated: (1) changes in
temperature during the burial history; (2) thermal maturity of the source rocks;
(3) transformation ratio of organic matter to the hydrocarbon; (4) oil window
onset
and peak generation; 5) residual potential of hydrocarbon forming
strata.
The complete 1-D modeling package also includes various kinetic
algorithms for hydrocarbon generation and PVT calculations of pore fluids.
The activation energies representing the organic matter thermal decomposition
properties obtained from special laboratory studies can also be input into the
modeling scheme.