Water resources management in Central Asia
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Número 25, 2009
The Golden Century Lake in the Kara-Kum desert in Turkmenistan
It must be noted that for Turkmenistan, water issues lie at the top of
its political agenda, which it tends to view as a solely domestic issue. In
recent times the country has not been taking part in any regional meetings
on management of water resources, having started to follow a unilateral
resource capture policy of constructing the Golden Century Lake. Since
the year 2000, construction of this large (projected area of 2,000 square
kilometres) artificial lake has made good progress, constituting the single
largest out-of-basin transfer in the region, substantially increasing the area
of irrigated land under cultivation in the country –4,000
square km of
farmland. The constructed is projected to be completed in 2010.
The project has been subject to extensive controversy, with experts
contending that the lake will, as a result of Turkmenistan’s soils and
heat, only result in a massive dead lake that will contribute to salini-
zation. Another concern according to the International Crisis Group
is related to the fact that around one million
ethnic Uzbeks residing
in the Dashkhovuz province in Turkmenistan are to be moved to the
Kara-Kum desert upon the completion of the lake (International Crisis
Group, 2002, p. 26). Uzbekistan has raised concerns that water will be
drained from the Amu-Darya to maintain the lake’s level, a view in fact
supported by many international experts (Allouche, 2007, p.50).
Overall, relations between Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have
remained edgy throughout the independence period, with rumours
circulating of a small-scale armed conflict of the Amu-Darya’s resources
between the two downstream countries. Some observers claim that
there have been reports of Uzbekistan troops taking control of water
control installations by force on the Turkmenistan
bank of the river,
and in 2001, there were reports of a massacre of a large number of
Uzbekistan troops in Turkmenistan (Sojamo, 2008, p. 82). The reports
were unsubstantiated, yet there was a clear presence of tensions that are
only expected to worsen in the coming years.
Anar Khamzayeva
20
Documentos CIDOB, Asia
Water resources management in Central Asia
Rogun (1) and Sangtuda (2) dam and hydroplant projects
Despite its internal instability and economic backwardness, Tajikistan
has highly prioritised the water issue in its domestic and foreign policy
objectives, having the largest hydroelectric potential in the region. Since
1998 it has been planning to re-launch the Soviet projects of the con-
struction of the Rogun and Sangtuda hydroplants.
The construction of the Rogun dam was designed to regulate the
hydrological regime of the Amu-Darya, yet the plan could seriously
hamper its already-strained relations with Uzbekistan. The latter has
been actively protesting against the Rogun project, as it would lead to
even greater dependence on Tajikistan and
would allow it to cut off
water to its key agricultural areas (Libert et al., 2008, p. 15).
There is much less disagreement over the Sangtuda-1 hydroelectric
plant, expected to come online in late March of this year, ahead of
schedule on the request of the Government of Tajikistan due to power
shortages. Experts note that judging from discussions and high-level
meetings in 2008, it is likely that flows of investment into developing
hydropower will increase.
Iran and Russia are already playing an important role in this sphere, with
the latter in particular expressing an interest in engaging in the construc-
tion of additional hydroelectric plants in Tajikistan. Iranian investment in
the Sangtuda-2 plant should make it operational by 2012. Tajikistan also
has signed an agreement with China to build the $300 million, 160-200
megawatt Nurobad-2 hydroelectric power plant (Daly, 2009).
The Kambarata 1 and 2 hydroplant projects
Kyrgyzstan’s relations with downstream countries on Syr-Darya have
been quite conflictive, with unsubstantiated
reports claiming that in
1996 Uzbekistan threatened to use military force to seize the Toktogul
dam and reservoir, the strategic water infrastructure, in the event of
Water resources management in Central Asia
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Número 25, 2009
Kyrgyzstan attempting to change the prevailing distribution policy. This
appears to be believable as cotton fields in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan
were flooded in the winters of 1993, 1998 and 2001, with Kyrgyzstan
releasing too much water from the dams in that period and during the
summer season not enough was available for irrigation.
Just like Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan seeks to increase its hydropower-gener-
ating capacity with more hydropower stations planned to be built. Yet,
the hydro-energy sector of Kyrgyzstan has been in complete disarray
with the government in search of investors to construct the Kambarata
1 and 2 hydroplants on the Naryn River. Both hydroplant projects are
said to be unattractive to foreign investors, even though the construc-
tion of hydroplants upstream of the Toktogul Dam is meant to make
it possible to generate hydropower to solve domestic energy shortages,
earn hard currency for electricity exports and still accumulate water for
irrigation purposes. Continued use of existing hydropower and devel-
opment of new hydropower stations are likely to remain the priority
alternatives for Kyrgyzstan with or without
the consent of co-basin
countries, which will only aggravate the existing disagreements.
Projected increase of water use demand from the Amu-Darya
by Afghanistan
Almost 40% of Afghanistan’s territory and 33% of its population
reside within the Aral Sea basin, which makes the country an important
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