Davlatning inqirozli siyosati[tahrir | manbasini tahrirlash]
Foiz stavkasi va inqirozlar (boshqa rangli ustun shaklida). Grafikdan koʻrish mumkinki, deyarli barcha inqirozlardan oldin uzoq vaqt davomida past foiz stavkalari amalda boʻlgan, keyin esa foiz stavkalari keskin oshgan va oqibatda iqtisodiy inqiroz yuzaga kelgan. Davlat inqirozni yumshatish va iqtisodiyotni stimullash uchun yana foiz stavkasini tushirgan.
Dunyodagi koʻpgina yirik inqirozlar davlatlarning notoʻgʻri makroiqtisodiy siyosatlari yoki iqtisodiyotni yetarli darajada nazorat qilmasliklari oqibatida sodir boʻlgan. Buyuk Depressiya, dot-com bubble (texnologiyalar bozoridagi inqiroz) va jahon iqtisodiy inqirozi shular jumlasidan. Texnologiyalar bozorida economic bubble paydo boʻlishiga investitsion firmalarning qalbaki moliyaviy hisobotlari, kompaniyalar va OAV tomonidan berilgan yolgʻon axborot sababchi boʻlgan[197][198][199][200]. Buyuk Depressiya yuzaga kelishida esa yuqori boj tariflari, Federal Rezerv Tizimining moliya bozoridagi keng qamrovli spekulyatsiyani vaqtida bartaraf etmaganligi, iqtisodiy faollik past boʻlgan sharoitda foizlarni keskin koʻtarishi va 1930—1931-yillarda yuzaga kelgan bank run sabab qilib koʻrsatiladi[201][202][203][204][205]. Iqtisodchilar Emi Nakamura va Jón Steinssonning 2018-yildagi xulosalariga koʻra, shuncha inqirozlardan soʻng ham, davlatlar tomonidan olib borilayotgan turli makroiqtisodiy siyosatlar oqibatlari har doim ham ijobiy natijalarga olib kelmayapti va shu sababli bunday siyosatlar tanqid ostida qolmoqda[206]. COVID-19 pandemiyasi paytida qabul qilingan iqtisodiy qarorlar yetarli darajada samarali emasligi sababli, u iqtisodiyotga ham, odamlar hayotini saqlashda ham kutilganidek yordam bermadi[207][208][209][210].
Empirik tadqiqotlarga koʻra, hukumatning foiz stavkasini pasaytirish siyosati koʻp hollarda keyingi inqirozlarga sharoit yaratadi[211]. Iqtisodiy liberalizm gʻoyalariga ega boʻlgan iqtisodchi F.Hayekning fikriga koʻra, Markaziy banklar tomonidan foiz stavkasining tushirilishi nafaqat investitsiyalar hajmini sunʼiy darajada oshiradi, balki notoʻgʻri investitsion siyosatni paydo qiladi. Bunday investitsion siyosat sharoitida uzoq muddatlarga moʻljallangan investitsiyalar hajmi qisqa muddatli investitsiyalarga nisbatan keskin darajada koʻpayib ketadi. Oqibatda iqtisodiyotda muvozanat buziladi va iqtisodiy bum inqirozga aylanadi[212][213]. Bu jarayon iqtisodiyotda „Hangover theory“ deb yuritiladi va hozirgacha past foiz stavkalari tufayli yuzaga kelgan inqirozlarni asoslashda ishlatiladi[214][215].
Iqtisodiy oʻsish[tahrir | manbasini tahrirlash]
Makroiqtisodiy siyosatning yana bir muhim vazifasi bu iqtisodiy oʻsishga erishish hisoblanadi. Nazariy darajada daromadlar tengsizligi, davlatlar orasidagi iqtisodiy oʻsish sur’atlaridagi farq va barqaror rivojlanish bilan iqtisodiy oʻsish nazariyasi shugʻullanadi. Bu masalalarni oʻrganuvchi birinchi tadqiqotlar XVIII asrda, asosiy gʻoyasi tugʻilish koʻrsatkichini pasaytirishga qaratilgan maltuschilik taʼlimotida aks ettirilgan. Thomas Robert Malthus oʻzining „Nufus qonuni toʻgʻrisida tajriba“ asarida aholi soni juda tez koʻpayib boradi, oziq-ovqat mahsulotlarining oʻsishi esa, ancha orqada qolib ketadi, degan fikrlarni keltirgan[216]. Lekin, Malthus gʻoyasi matematik jihatdan aniq tasdiqlanmaganligi, texnologik progress va inson xulq-atvorini hisobga olmasligi, empirik maʼlumotlardan keskin farq qilganligi[217] tufayli, koʻplab olimlar tomonidan tanqid qilingan[218][219]. 1930-yillarda Big push modeliga asoslangan keynschilik gʻoyalari avj oldi. Bu gʻoyaning maqsadi davlat investitsiyalari orqali Industrial oʻsishni taʼminlash edi. 1950-yillar oxirlariga kelib, iqtisodiyotda „Solow modeli“ singari neoklassik modellar aktuallashib bordi. Neoklassik modellar faqatgina iqtisodiy muvozanatga erishish va uni taʼminlash masalalarinigina oʻrganar edi[220][221]. 1980-yillar soʻnggida tuzilgan modellar iqtisodiy oʻsish sababi sifatida tashqi samaralarni koʻrsatgan. Ammo, bu modellardagi gʻoyalar amalda oʻz tasdigʻini topmadi. 1990-yillar boshlarida esa, tadqiqot va texnologik ishlanmalar sektorida yuzaga keluvchi monopol foyda hisobiga iqtisodiy oʻsishni taʼminovchi nazariya ishlab chiqildi[222]. XXI asrda yangi klassik maktab va yangi institutsionalizm maktabi iqtisodiy oʻsishga bogʻliq turli modellarni ishlab chiqishdi; yagona oʻsish nazariyasiga asoslangan model vujudga keldi[223].
Iqtisodiy oʻsish omillari[224][225][226]:
Mehnat (iqtisodiyotda ishlangan umumiy soatlar soni);
Inson kapitali;
Ashyoviy kapital miqdori;
Texnologik progress;
Erkin savdo;
Mamlakatdagi erkinlik darajasi[227].
Manbalar[tahrir | manbasini tahrirlash]
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↑ Nakamura, Emi; Steinsson, Jón (2018). "Identification in Macroeconomics" (en). Journal of Economic Perspectives32 (3): 59–86. doi:10.1257/jep.32.3.59. ISSN0895-3309.
↑ REDBIRD, BETH, LAUREL HARBRIDGE-YONG, and RACHEL DAVIS MERSEY (2022). "The Social and Political Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Introduction". RSF: The Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences8 (8): 1—30.
↑„WHO Recommends Nations Lift or Ease COVID-19-Related Travel Bans“.
↑„Macroeconomic impact of COVID-19 in China and policy suggestions“.
↑„Macroeconomic policy responses to the COVID-19 crisis in emerging market and developing economies: Current outcomes and evolving challenges“.
↑„What are the risks of a prolonged period of low interest rates?“.
↑ White, Lawrence H. (1999). "Hayek’s Monetary Theory and Policy: A Critical Reconstruction.". Journal of Money, Credit and Banking33 (1): 109—120. doi:10.2307/2601142.
↑ WILTGEN, RICHARD J. (1998). "MARX’S AND ENGELS’S CONCEPTION OF MALTHUS: The Heritage of a Critique.". Organization & Environment11 (4): 451—460.
↑ Woolston, Howard B.. "The Dynamics of Population: A Criticism of Malthus.". The Journal of Social Forces2 (2): 169—177. doi:10.2307/3005334.
↑„What Is the Neoclassical Growth Theory, and What Does It Predict?“.
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↑Acemoglu 2009, ss. 613–617.
↑Acemoglu 2009, ss. 781–792.
↑Greenlaw & Taylor 2018, ss. 166–170.
↑„The analysis of growth, Britannica“.
↑Матвеева 2007, ss. 208–210.
↑ Gwartney, James D., (1999). "Economic Freedom and the Environment for Economic Growth". Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics155 (4): 643—663.
Adabiyotlar[tahrir | manbasini tahrirlash]
Acemoglu, Daron. Introduction to Modern Economic Growth (en). Princeton University Press, 2009 — 990 bet.
Asqarova, M. T.; Zaxidov, Gʻ.E.; Djumayev, Z. A.. Makroiqtisodiyot (Darslik). TDIU, 2019 — 290 bet.
Greenlaw, Steven A.; Taylor, Timothy. Principles of Macroeconomics, 2 (en), Rice University, 2018 — 600 bet. ISBN 1-947172-30-1.
Keynes, John Maynard. The general theory of employment, interest and money (en). Macmillan and Сo., 1936 — 403 bet.
Marshall, Alfred. Principles of Economics, 8 (en), London: Macmillan and Co., 1920 — 627 bet.
Mishkin, Frederic S.. The economics of money, banking, and financial markets, 4 (en), Pearson Canada, 2011 — 748 bet. ISBN 978-0-321-58471-7.
Shodmonov, Sh. Sh.; Xodiyev, B. Y.. Iqtisodiyot nazariyasi (Darslik). Barkamol fayz media, 2017 — 784 bet.
Tashmatov, Z.G.; Asatullayev, X.S.; Allaberganov. Iqtisodiy ta'limotlar tarixi. IQTISOD-MOLIYA, 2019 — 352 bet.
Матвеева, Т. Ю. Введение в макроэкономику, 5 (ru), Издательский дом ГУ-ВШЭ, 2007 — 511 bet. ISBN 978-5-7598-0543-4.
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