Tez özetleri Astronomi ve Uzay Bilimleri Anabilim Dalı

The Methods For Demand Forecasting in Electric Power Systems and Application of Neural Networks

After the consecutive world petrol crises, the people aimed to find new energy sources. But the sources are not infinite, and one day humanity will run out them. And then the fundamental theorem of the economy will start. Everyday the demand is increasing and across the demand, supply is increasing slow or decreasing. The price is everytime increasing. This problem is the one of the biggest problems of the humanity.

In Turkey, the opinion about the electricity is changing. Now the people learnt that there is no difference between one barrel of petrol and one MegaWatthour electric energy. The electrical energy is not infinite and is not a social good, it is commercial.

Since 1994, establishing the Turkish electricity market continued and recent years it is growing faster. Especially declerating the 4628 numbered Electricity Market Law and establishing the Electricity Market Regulatory Authority in 2001 increased the attention to the electricity energy and the market.

After the privatizations, electricity system will not be a political one, it will be commercial. The government will stop paying money for subventions and the load on the citizens will decrease.

It is known that the major aim of the distribution, transmission and production companies is to supply the demand. To supply the demand every time, needs to know the future demands. If the forecast of electricity demand isn’t succesful, and if it is over the demand, it will cause dead investments, high price energy buying deals etc... The other side if the forecasts are under the demand, the system will be limited or it will cause faults in cables, transformers etc…

In past, because of the inadvisible forecasts the government made investments in electricity production sector, but the distribution and transmission part of the electricity system lived crises. In 2006, a legislation was published by Electricity Market Regulatory Authority and the distrubition companies are forced to make forecasts with low error rates for the next year and the next ten years. After the forecast values of distribution companies, the transmission and production companies will use the data in their investment programs. But still the distribution companies in Turkey which are especially operated by government are not ready to forecast the electricty demand in scientific methods.

YARIMÇAM Dinçer
Danışman : Prof.Dr. Osman Nuri UÇAN

Anabilim Dalı : Elektrik Elektronik Mühendisliği Anabilim Dalı

Mezuniyet Yılı : 2009

Tez Savunma Jürisi : Prof.Dr. Osman Nuri UÇAN

: Prof.Dr. Aydın AKAN

: Prof.Dr. Serhat ŞEKER

: Prof.Dr. Sıddık YARMAN

: Prof.Dr. Hakan Ali ÇIRPAN